After a brief one-day break, the World Series gets back in action on Friday night at 8:08 p.m. ET. The Rays and Dodgers will square off in Game 3 after splitting the first two games of the series. Historically, teams that win Game 3 of a 1-1 series have gone on to lift the trophy at around a 77% clip, so this game is clearly very important for both squads.
Let’s dive into two of my favorite baseball bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 3 of Rays-Dodgers.
All odds were obtained from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Under 7.5 runs
The over hit in the first two games of the series, but this profiles to be a pretty low-scoring game.
The Rays are slight underdogs, and they’ll turn to Charlie Morton in this contest. He struggled a bit during the regular season, posting a 4.74 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest he was pretty unlucky. He still averaged nearly 10 strikeouts and fewer than one HR per nine innings, but batters managed a .355 BABIP. That is a clear outlier when looking at his marks in that category throughout his career.
Morton has been virtually unhittable through three starts this postseason, posting a 0.57 ERA and 1.98 FIP. The Dodgers are very capable against right-handers – they ranked first in wRC+ in those matchups during the regular season – but Morton is talented enough to keep their offense at bay.
The Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler, and this sets up as a potential smash spot for him. Buehler hasn’t been quite as dominant as Morton throughout the postseason, but he’s still posted a 1.89 ERA and 3.24 FIP. He’s also been a much better strikeout pitcher, racking up nearly 13.75 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Rays are good at a lot of things on the baseball field but making contact vs. right-handers is not one of them. They posted the third-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers during the regular season. Additionally, they were one of the worst teams in baseball against the fastball this season, which is a pitch Buehler features heavily. He should be able to rack up strikeouts, so it’ll be difficult for the Rays to get on the scoreboard.
This game is tough for me to pick straight up – I would lean the Rays (+140) at the current odds – so I think the better option is to just bet the under. After the starters exit, both managers have the luxury of being able to lean on excellent bullpens. Everyone should be available following an off day on Thursday, so expect to see both team’s best relievers in an important game.
The Pick: Rays to win the series +160
I think Game 3 is basically a toss up, and it makes sense to grab the Rays to win the series at +160 if you think they can win Game 3. Those odds translate to an implied probability of just 33.3% to win this series, and I think that is selling the Rays short. The Dodgers deserve to be favored, but I think it’s much closer to 60% than 66.6%. That makes this an appealing wager for a pure math perspective.
Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.